The path for US crypto market structure legislation is lengthening, with TD Cowen analysts forecasting a possible approval in 2027 and an effective date in 2029.
In a recent client note, TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group explained that while passage this year remains possible, political incentives lean toward delay. Democrats, the firm said, might prefer to wait if they believe they can control the House agenda after the next midterm elections.
“Election outcomes are always uncertain, which is why Democrats may cut a deal,” stated managing director Jaret Seiberg. “That could happen quickly, as staff have been working on the technical language for months.”
Seiberg further argued that a slower process could ultimately ease negotiations. “Time favors enactment as the problems disappear if the bill passes in 2027 and takes effect in 2029. Crypto would need to accept that the presidential election could impact the final rules, and Democrats would need to accept that the conflict provision will not apply to Trump.”
The debate will heavily focus on clauses aiming to prevent conflicts of interest for former government officials. Such provisions, potentially affecting figures like Donald Trump, are viewed as a critical obstacle requiring compromise on timing.
